Opportunity Detail

Ladder inconsistency on polymarket

monotonicity break between strikes 2027 and 2027; prices 0.0025 -> 0.2450

mediummonitorladder_consistency

Trade instructions

Fade the over ladder kink between 2027 and 2027.

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Priority score100

Fee-adjusted edge0.242

Estimated size66304

Time alive2h

First edge0.242

Latest edge0.242

Max edge seen0.242

Decay 10s0.000

Decay 60s-

Decay 300s-

First detectedMar 28, 3:35 AM

Last detectedMar 28, 7:24 AM

Canonical event keyelection-french-laurent-presidential-wauquiez-win

Linked records

Context

Primary marketWill Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?

Secondary marketWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Match record-

Raw details

{ "reason": "monotonicity break", "direction": "over", "group_key": "polymarket:any-vote-ambiguity-round:total:according-achieves-advance-ambiguity:over", "left_price": "0.00250000", "left_strike": "2027", "right_price": "0.24500000", "edge_samples": [ { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:43:52.077299+00:00", "edge": "0.24250000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:02.077361+00:00", "edge": "0.24250000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:12.077106+00:00", "edge": "0.24250000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:22.077337+00:00", "edge": "0.24250000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:32.079887+00:00", "edge": "0.24250000" } ], "right_strike": "2027" }