Opportunity Detail

Within-venue parity mismatch on kalshi

Mutually exclusive/exhaustive sum is 0.7450, deviation -0.2550

highmonitorwithin_venue_parity

Trade instructions

Buy the underpriced parity basket on Kalshi.

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Priority score56.7

Fee-adjusted edge0.255

Estimated size0

Time alive1h

First edge0.145

Latest edge0.145

Max edge seen0.145

Decay 10s0.000

Decay 60s-

Decay 300s-

First detectedMar 28, 3:54 AM

Last detectedMar 28, 7:24 AM

Canonical event keykalshi:KXMLBHIT-26MAR281915NYYSF

Linked records

Context

Primary marketMatt Chapman: 3+ hits?

Secondary marketMatt Chapman: 2+ hits?

Match record-

Raw details

{ "group_key": "kalshi:KXMLBHIT-26MAR281915NYYSF:binary:chapman-hits-matt", "edge_samples": [ { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:43:52.077299+00:00", "edge": "0.14500000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:02.077361+00:00", "edge": "0.14500000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:12.077106+00:00", "edge": "0.14500000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:22.077337+00:00", "edge": "0.14500000" }, { "ts": "2026-03-28T05:44:32.079887+00:00", "edge": "0.14500000" } ], "market_titles": [ "Matt Chapman: 3+ hits?", "Matt Chapman: 2+ hits?", "Matt Chapman: 1+ hits?" ], "probability_sum": "0.74500000", "deviation_from_one": "-0.25500000" }